Momentum Analysis (6/24-26, likely voters) for Vic Wulsin:
Vic Wulsin (D): 33
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 41
David Krikorian (I): 6
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)
If any incumbent polling under 50 is in danger, Schmidt barely scraping above 40 is a real showing of vulnerability. But let’s pop open the hood and look at some other numbers from the poll: Only 36% of voters say that they will vote to re-elect Schmidt, while 33% say they will vote to replace her, and 15% are willing to consider someone else. Schmidt’s favorable/unfavorable rating is a poor 45-45, and her job performance rating is even weaker: 33% give her a positive rating while 53% have a negative view of her job performance.
Schmidt is in the danger zone for sure, but I can’t help but wonder if she’ll turn into our elusive white whale. Full memo below the fold.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
this seat, a couple of PA seats and maybe a couple of FL seats have been our biggest recruitment failures. i hope wulsin wins, but i’m not that hopeful.
Schmidt really seems to be unpopular, and the GOP brand is damaged. Wulsin has a real chance, considering she lost only by a few points last time in a mid-term election. Even if she were challenged in 2010, every good vote on health care and the other elements of the progressive agenda next year is one vote closer to realizing that agenda.
The anti-slipping on bathroom vomit crowd is not motivated by Schmidt’s continued candidacy and is going somewhere else, such as Krikorian.
Funny sounding name: Krikorian. Kinda reminds me of Jack Kervokian (isn’t he running for Congress too?)